GLOBAL MARKETS-Euro dogged by ECB talk, EM sell-off grinds on

Mon, 03 Feb - 8:49pm

* Caution in week of manufacturing data, U.S. payrolls

* Euro on defensive as market see pressure for ECB easing

* Official China PMI dips to 50.5; won leads Asian FX losses

* Hungary in firing line of emerging market battle

By Marc Jones

LONDON, Feb 3 (Reuters) - Growing pressure for more policy easing in the euro zone pinned the euro near a 10-week low on Monday while persistent tension in emerging markets drove Hungary's forint to a 10-month trough and weighed on global stocks.

Stock markets in Europe .FTEU3 reflected the weak appetite for riskier assets as they slid 0.6 percent, following shares in Asia.

MSCI's global index .MIWD00000PUS posted its largest monthly decline in January since May 2012. Emerging markets

.MSCIEF lost 6.6 percent for their worst January since 2009.

"It is a global macro question and global risk sentiment is really at stake here," said John Hardy, head of FX strategy at Saxo bank in Copenhagen. "There are a lot of event risks this week and it just feels like markets are trying to figure out where they are."

The week ahead provides a raft of global business surveys and jobs data from the United States to offer a clearer view on the global economy, while the European Central Bank (ECB) might well consider easing policy at its meeting on Thursday.

The prospect of an ECB move weighed on the euro on Monday, pinning it near 10-week lows at $1.3490 EUR= following a break of major support at $1.3506.

A fall in euro zone inflation to 0.7 percent last month - far below the ECB's target of just under 2 percent - has raised the spectre of deflation in the bloc, and with tumbling emerging market currencies threatening to compound the problem, calls are increasing on the bank to take action.

The pressure on the shared currency was eased slightly by data showing euro zone factories enjoyed their strongest month since mid-2011 in January and the first growth in Greek manufacturing activity since August 2009. News Search ID:nL9N0IM04J

But reports that the euro zone is preparing for more debt relief for Greece reheated tensions in the currency bloc's debt market.

"It feels like the euro it is breaking here," Hardy added. "If the ECB doesn't reverse that break I am looking towards $1.32 for an intermediate area and then $1.30."

BAHT BOUNCES, FORINT VULNERABLE

Emerging markets will also be high on the 24-member ECB Governing Council's agenda. If the stampede out of developing markets forces the euro higher again, that could drive euro zone inflation unacceptably low.

The Thai baht bounced on Monday after peaceful elections over the weekend triggered short-covering, but the South Korean won had its worst day in 7-1/2 months, leading losses among Asian currencies on stress in emerging markets. Href="NewsSearch">EMRG/FRX

In China, the official Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) dipped to 50.5 in January from December's 51, in line with market expectations. A separate survey of the service sector also showed a moderation in growth.

Back in emerging Europe, there were signs Hungary was being dragged deeper into the troubles as its forint currency HUF= nudged to a 10-month low, though a jump in January PMI data curbed the pressure. News Search ID:nB3N0JW00O

Many see Hungary, with its high debt levels and unorthodox economic policies, as the most vulnerable in emerging Europe to the reversal in sentiment.

Turkey's lira TRY= , another flashpoint in the latest upheaval, found relative calm after a drastic official interest rate rise last week.

In Asia, Japan's Nikkei .N225 again led share market losses as a fresh 2 percent drop took it to lows not seen since mid-November.

MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan

.MIAPJ0000PUS eased 0.3 percent, while Seoul's KOSPI lost 1 percent .KS11 . U.S. stock futures ESc1 , however, pointed to a modest 0.1 percent dip.

FLIGHT TO SAFETY

Among assets traditionally perceived as relatively safe, the yen rose to 101.87 yen JPY= in European trading to leave it hovering at a near two-month high, while the yields on benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note US10YT=RR dropped to 2.66 percent to near levels not seen since mid-November.

But gold failed has actually lost ground over the past week to stand at $1,244.19 an ounce XAU= on Monday.

Brent oil LCOc1 was off 2 cents at $106.38 a barrel, having suffered its biggest monthly loss in four months. U.S. crude CLc1 eased 21 cents to $97.28.

"Brent is suffering from the emerging market turmoil that is spreading across most markets," said Tetsu Emori, a commodity fund manager at Astmax Investment.

(Additional reporting by Wayne Cole in Sydney; Editing by Ruth Pitchford)

((marc.jones@thomsonreuters.com)(+44)(0)(207 542 9033)(Reuters Messaging: marc.jones.thomsonreuters.com@reuters.net))

 
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Keywords: MARKETS GLOBAL/

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