Fitch Affirms Suncorp Group and Subsidiaries <Origin Href="QuoteRef">SUN.AX</Origin>

Thu, 06 Mar - 1:12pm
(The following statement was released by the rating agency)

SYDNEY, March 05 (Fitch) Fitch Ratings has affirmed all the ratings of Suncorp 
Group Limited (SGL) and its main operating subsidiaries: AAI Limited (AAI) and 
Suncorp-Metway Limited (SML). A full list of rating actions is provided at the 
end of this rating action commentary.

Suncorp-Metway Insurance Limited's (SMIL) IFS rating has been withdrawn 
following a legal entity reorganisation and the transfer of all insurance 
liabilities to AAI. SMIL no longer exists as a legal entity.

KEY RATING DRIVERS - SGL's IDR and AAI's IFS

The affirmation of SGL's Issuer Default Rating (IDR) and Stable Outlook reflects 
the affirmation of AAI's Insurer Financial Strength (IFS) rating and Stable 
Outlook.

SGL benefits from a large financial services footprint, which includes a very 
strong non-life business, and simple life and banking businesses. The 
organisational and operational improvements from a to-date successfully 
implemented simplification strategy, have driven a stronger operating 
performance over the 18 months to end-1H14, and Fitch expects will support a 
solid future performance. 

Capital ratios are strong. At end-1H14 AUD1.3bn was held by the group, above 
internal targets. The group holds most of its surplus within the non-life 
operations but, since its reorganisation to a non-operating holding company 
structure, has increasingly held surplus capital at SGL. As a regulated entity, 
capital is fungible and available to all the operating entities should it be 
required.

The affirmation of AAI's IFS rating and Stable Outlook reflect its strong 
business franchise and brands, as well as its dominant market position in 
Australia's non-life insurance sector. Solid premium rate increases and 
operational improvements, including better risk selection and pricing, and a 
focus on claims and expense management, has supported AAI's earnings 
performance. 

The affirmation also reflects the group's continued conservative approach to 
investments, reserving and financial leverage, within AAI and wider non-life 
group. 

Across the non-life group investment portfolios are heavily weighted towards 
highly rated fixed-income securities. At end-1H14, 93% of total investments were 
in fixed-income securities, 78% of these being rated 'AA-' or higher. Exposure 
to equities is low and as a result the 'risky' asset to equity ratio of 9% is 
very low relative to Fitch median criteria guidelines.

Reserving across the group is strong and has historically produced large claims 
reserve redundancies, although these have trended lower over the 18 months to 
end-1H14. The group maintained a 90% probability of adequacy in its claims 
reserves and at end-1H14 held risk margins above its central estimate claims 
reserves of AUD984m. In the five years to FYE13, positive prior-period movements 
have averaged 5% of opening equity.

RATING SENSITIVITIES - SGL's IDR and AAI's IFS RATING

SGL's IDR is likely to move in line with AAI's IFS rating. 

A positive rating action is unlikely. This is because the group's banking 
exposure is large relative to the size of the insurance entities, and SML's 
standalone profile acts as a drag on the group rating. Positive rating action 
would require a stronger standalone profile for SML, an extended period of 
robust operating performance across all businesses and, at a group level, strong 
and sustained capital ratios.

Key rating triggers that could lead to a downgrade include a severe 
deterioration in the non-life operations' long-term results, particularly if it 
coincides with weaker performance in the banking or life operations, if it 
damages the franchise value and if it leads to lower capital ratios. 
Profitability in the non-life operations is currently key to the group's 
ratings. Ratings could be downgraded should earnings be consistently below 
industry levels and, specifically given the group's high ratings, should 
combined ratios be in excess of 100%, and insurance trading ratios below 10% 
over an extended period.

KEY RATING DRIVERS - SML's IDRs, SUPPORT RATING and SENIOR DEBT

The bank's IDRs, Support Rating and senior debt ratings reflect an extremely 
high likelihood of support from the group if required, as Fitch views SML as a 
core member of SGL. The ability to provide support is strong, as reflected by 
capital surplus to internal targets. As a result, SML's IDRs and Stable Outlook 
are aligned with AAI's IFS rating.

RATING SENSITIVITIES - SML's IDRSs, SUPPORT RATING and SENIOR DEBT

SML's IDRs and senior debt ratings are likely to move in line with any movement 
in the IFS rating of AAI. A downgrade of the IDRs, Support Rating and senior 
debt ratings is likely should SML no longer be considered core to SGL. A 
significant reduction in the group's ability to support SML, as measured by 
capital surplus to minimum targets, without a commensurate improvement in SML's 
intrinsic creditworthiness, as measured by the Viability Rating (VR), may also 
place downward pressure on the ratings.

KEY RATING DRIVERS - SML's VR 

The bank's Viability Rating (VR) reflects its sound core profitability and asset 
quality, improving capitalisation, and the operational benefits of being part of 
SGL, such as brand sharing, fungibility of capital for growth, cross-sell 
capacity, and close management interaction. These factors are offset by a 
reliance on wholesale funding and recent strong loan growth which may put 
pressure on asset quality, profitability and funding in future periods. 

The sale of most of the remaining non-core loans during 2013 was a credit 
positive, consolidating the bank at its current VR level. Asset quality improved 
significantly as a result of the sale, with SML's impaired loan ratio now at the 
low end compared to domestic peers, with further improvements expected as the 
remaining non-core exposures are exited. Fitch expects some manageable 
deterioration in the asset quality of the core portfolio during 2014 due to a 
modest weakening of the operating environment, although there is some downside 
risk given SML's recent strong loan growth has yet to fully season.

SML's reliance on wholesale funding is being gradually reduced as the funding 
for the legacy non-core bank matures. Liquid asset holdings including 
internally-securitised mortgages, cover almost all wholesale debt maturities in 
2014 and provide a strong buffer to funding market dislocation. All liquid 
assets are eligible for the Reserve Bank of Australia's repurchase facility.

Standalone capitalisation is improving, with Fitch core capital/risk-weighted 
assets at 8.91% at end-1H14, and significant group surplus capital could be 
quickly channelled to the bank should it be required. SML targets a minimum 
Basel III common equity Tier 1 ratio of 8% - it was 8.25% at end-1H14. 
Profitability is also likely to improve further in 2014 as the legacy funding 
associated with the non-core assets matures, reducing the drag it has on 
earnings.

RATING SENSITIVITIES - SML's VR 

SML's VR could be downgraded should asset quality worsen substantially, possibly 
as a result of strong loan growth, which could weaken its funding and liquidity 
profile, or a significant deterioration in the operating environment. 

An upgrade of SML's VR would require evidence that the bank's strong loan growth 
has not had a negative impact on asset quality and profitability, as well as 
further strengthening of the funding profile and profitability. 

KEY RATING DRIVERS AND RATING SENSITIVITIES - SML's SUPPORT RATING FLOOR

The Support Rating Floor reflects SML's limited market share, with Fitch 
factoring in a moderate probability of support from the Australian authorities. 
The Support Rating Floor is potentially sensitive to any change in assumptions 
around the propensity or ability of the Australian authorities to provide timely 
support to the bank. The Floor is vulnerable to global regulatory initiatives 
aimed at reducing the implicit government support available to banks.

KEY RATING DRIVERS AND RATING SENSITIVITIES - SML's SUBORDINATED DEBT 

SML's subordinated debt is rated one notch below its Long-Term IDR rather than 
its VR to reflect Fitch's expectation that SGL has the propensity and ability to 
support these instruments if needed, as per Fitch's criteria "Assessing and 
Rating Bank Subordinated and Hybrid Securities" dated 31 January 2014. The 
subordinated debt ratings are broadly sensitive to the same considerations that 
might affect SML's Long-Term IDR. 

The rating actions are as follows: 

Suncorp Group Limited (SGL)

Long-Term IDR: affirmed at 'A'; Outlook Stable;

Short-Term IDR: affirmed at 'F1'.

Suncorp-Metway Limited (SML):

Long-Term IDR: affirmed at 'A+'; Outlook Stable;

Short-Term IDR: affirmed at 'F1';

Viability Rating: affirmed at 'bbb+'; 

Support Rating: affirmed at '1';

Support Rating Floor: affirmed at 'BB+';

Government-guaranteed debt: affirmed at 'AAA';

AUD domestic medium-term note programme: affirmed at 'A+'/'F1';

USD15bn euro medium-term note programme: affirmed at 'A+'/'F1';

Senior unsecured debt: affirmed at 'A+'; 

Commercial paper: affirmed at 'F1'; and

Subordinated debt: affirmed at 'A'. 

Suncorp Metway Insurance Ltd (SMIL):

Insurer Financial Strength: withdrawn.

AAI Limited:

Insurer Financial Strength: affirmed at 'A+'; Outlook Stable.

Contacts:

Primary Analysts 

John Birch (SGL, SMIL and AAI)

Director

+61 2 8256 0345

Fitch Australia Pty Ltd, Level 15, 77 King Street, Sydney, NSW 2000

Tim Roche (SML)

Senior Director

+61 2 8256 0310

Secondary Analysts

Tim Roche (SGL, SMIL and AAI)

Senior Director

+61 2 8256 0310

John Birch (SML)

Director

+61 2 8256 0345

Committee Chairmen 

Jeff Liew (SGL,SMIL and AAI)

Senior Director

+852 2263 9939

Mark Young (SML)

Managing Director

+65 6796 7229

Applicable criteria, "Insurance Rating Methodology" dated 13 November 2014, 
"Global Financial Institutions Rating Criteria" dated 31 January 2014, 
"Assessing and Rating Bank Subordinated and Hybrid Securities" dated 31 January 
2014, and "Rating FI Subsidiaries and Holding Companies" dated 10 August 2012, 
are available at www.fitchratings.com.

Media Relations: Iselle Gonzalez, Sydney, Tel: +61 2 8256 0326, Email: 
iselle.gonzalez@fitchratings.com.

Additional information is available on www.fitchratings.com.

Applicable Criteria and Related Research: 

Insurance Rating Methodology 

http://www.fitchratings.com/creditdesk/reports/report_frame.cfm?rpt_id=723072

Global Financial Institutions Rating Criteria

http://www.fitchratings.com/creditdesk/reports/report_frame.cfm?rpt_id=732397

Assessing and Rating Bank Subordinated and Hybrid Securities Criteria

http://www.fitchratings.com/creditdesk/reports/report_frame.cfm?rpt_id=732137

Rating FI Subsidiaries and Holding Companies

http://www.fitchratings.com/creditdesk/reports/report_frame.cfm?rpt_id=679209

Additional Disclosure 

Solicitation Status 

http://www.fitchratings.com/gws/en/disclosure/solicitation?pr_id=822710

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Fitch Australia Pty Ltd holds an Australian financial services licence (AFS 
licence no. 337123) which authorises it to provide credit ratings to wholesale 
clients only. Credit ratings information published by Fitch is not intended to 
be used by persons who are retail clients within the meaning of the Corporations 
Act 2001.

URN: 
urn:newsml:reuters.com:20140306:nFit692065:4
Topics: 
FINS AU CMPNY ASIA PINS BANK BISV DBT LEN RTRS AAA INS BSVC BNK FIN INSR

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