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Gold fell about 3% for the week and dipped below US$3,900 an ounce on Friday, its lowest level of 2026 and roughly 30% under its January peak. October marked a second straight monthly loss. Silver fell below US$50 for the first time since November 2025.
The Federal Reserve held rates at 3.75% to 4.00% on Wednesday, but the 10–2 vote included two officials who wanted an immediate hike, and Chair Kevin Warsh stressed the Fed's commitment to returning inflation to 2%. Thursday's data reinforced that stance: the US economy grew at a 3.4% annualised pace in the third quarter and the Fed's preferred inflation gauge rose 3.6% over the year. An attack on a tanker in the Strait of Hormuz then pushed oil higher, lifting expectations of a December hike.
Unusually, gold fell even as the dollar and Treasury yields eased, a sign that ongoing selling of technology stocks was still forcing investors to raise cash. Physical buyers in India held back in anticipation of lower prices.
Underlying demand, however, remains strong. Central banks bought a net 321 tonnes of gold in the third quarter, and gold ETF holdings reached a record 4,256 tonnes. UBS's Giovanni Staunovo said “gold could climb to $5,000 or higher next year” once the Fed is eventually able to cut rates.
The week ahead: the US midterm elections on 3 November and the next US jobs report.
Sources: CNBC / Reuters · Kitco / Reuters · USAGOLD · Yahoo Finance · Quartz · NAI500 · FX Leaders