Australian & NZ dlrs meet stiff resistance; Fed & China in focus

Mon, 10 Feb - 11:27am

* Aussie chart resistance at 90 cents

* Aussie up 3 yen in one week

* Fed Chair, China data, Aussie jobs seen as key risks this week

By Cecile Lefort and Naomi Tajitsu

SYDNEY/WELLINGTON, Feb 10 (Reuters) - The Australian and New Zealand dollars were hovering near multi-week highs on Monday though investors were cautious ahead an eventful week including testimony by the new chair of the U.S. Federal Reserve Bank and data from China.

The Aussie AUD=D4 stood at $0.8943, not far from a one-month peak of $0.8999 touched on Friday. It gained 2.3 percent last week, its best performance since September, after the Reserve Bank of Australia shut the door on more rate cuts.

The Aussie met stiff chart resistance between $0.8988-99 with dealers citing selling interest by Asian central banks just above that range.

"Ninety cents is going to be a big psychological level," said Greg Gibbs, a strategist at Royal Bank of Scotland in Singapore, adding the Reserve Bank of Australia would not welcome a 9 handle on the currency.

"The Aussie could get above 90 cents if we have a globally benign environment but it's unlikely to move a lot higher," he said.

On the radar of investors this week is Fed chair Janet Yellen who delivers her first testimony to the House of Representatives on Tuesday and the Senate on Thursday. Markets will be looking for reassurance that policy will stay loose for a long time to come.

In Asia, China releases trade numbers on Wednesday and consumer prices on Friday, while Australia will have jobs figures on Thursday. ECONCN ECONAU

The Aussie is sensitive to news out China, Australia's top export market.

The Aussie held solid gains versus the yen AUDJPY=R at 91.66, having leapt more than 3 yen in one week.

The New Zealand dollar NZD=D4 was holding firm at $0.8275, having climbed 2.6 percent last week to as high as $0.8297. Dealers reported resistance around $0.8300, which has proved tough to break over the last few weeks. Technical support was seen at $0.8272, the 100-day moving average.

The kiwi edged up broadly, reaching a one-week high around 85.00 yen NZDJPY=R and recovering from a sell-off to around 81.35 earlier this month.

Against the U.S. dollar, the kiwi hovered around the middle of its $0.8050-$0.8550 range seen since October, supported by expectations that New Zealand interest rates will begin rising next month, while the economy is seen outperforming in 2014.

Given a dearth of major domestic economic data and events this week, movements in the kiwi will likely be driven by the U.S. dollar and Yellen's Fed policy remarks.

The kiwi could push higher up towards $0.8500 should the RBNZ start raising interest rates from a record low 2.5 percent in March. Still, it may struggle beyond that level, given that optimism about New Zealand's economy and its increasing rate advantage has largely been priced into the currency.

New Zealand government bonds 0#NZTSY= were unchanged, with the 10-year yield holding around 4.57 percent after rising from a three-month low of 4.53 percent late last week.

Australian government bond futures were a touch firmer with the three-year bond contract YTTc1 up 2 ticks at 96.990. The 10-year contract YTCc1 also gained 2 ticks to 95.925.

The premium offered by Australian 10-year yields over Treasuries has widened to 146 basis points, from a low of 123 late in December.

(Editing by Eric Meijer)

((Cecile.Lefort@thomsonreuters.com)(+61 2 9373-1234)(Reuters Messaging: cecile.lefort.thomsonreuters@reuters.net))

Keywords: MARKETS AUSTRALIA/FOREX

URN: 
urn:newsml:reuters.com:20140210:nL3N0LE0RO:2
Topics: 
JP US NZ AU FRX ASIA REP DBT LEN RTRS INT CEN MCE MMT AMERS

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