Australia, NZ dlrs pull back from highs on China & Ukraine worries

Fri, 14 Mar - 10:34am

* Kiwi off 11-month peak vs US, 6-yr high on yen

* Aussie down 3 yen in one week

* Govt bonds rally on Ukraine tensions

By Cecile Lefort and Naomi Tajitsu

SYDNEY/WELLINGTON, March 14 (Reuters) - The Australian and New Zealand dollars pulled back from highs on Friday after heightened tensions in Ukraine and disappointing data in China took the shine off the growth-linked currencies.

The Aussie AUD=D4 was at $0.9034, having gone as far as $0.9104 in the prior session following surprisingly strong jobs data at home. It was on track to end the week with a 0.3 percent loss. Support was seen at $0.9013, the 50 percent retracement of the $0.8923-$0.9104 move, with resistance at $0.9045, then $0.9080.

The Aussie was nursing hefty losses against the safe-haven yen, and was last at 91.77 AUDJPY=R , having lost around 3 yen in one week.

It was undermined by a possible response by Europe and the United States against Russia if a referendum in Ukraine's Crimea region went ahead. News Search ID:nL6N0MA2ZT News Search ID:nL2N0MA11V

Not helping were persistent concerns over China's economic growth with investment, retail sales and factory output all hitting multi-year lows.

Still, some dealers were stunned at the resilience of the Aussie given China is Australia's top export market.

"The Aussie is surprisingly high after all three indicators in China were well below expectations. I would have thought the Aussie to have fallen more," said Joseph Capurso, a rate strategist at Commonwealth Bank of Australia.

He expects the resource-heavy currency to remain above 90 cents until the Federal Reserve's two-day policy meeting which ends on March 19. Href="NewsSearch">FED/DIARY

The Aussie was still up more than 1 percent so far this year against its U.S. counterpart, having recently climbed to a three-month peak of $0.9135 following a run of upbeat local economic data.

Recent data led markets to price out almost any chance of further easing with interbank futures 0#YBA: implying around one-in-10 chance of a cut from a record low of 2.5 percent. Swap markets give a small chance of a hike on a 12-month horizon.

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The high-yielding New Zealand dollar NZD=D4 traded at $0.8540, easing from an 11-month high of $0.8607 hit on Thursday. It slipped from a 6-year high against the safe-haven yen NZDJPY=R , knocking the kiwi off a post-float high of 80.13 against a currency basket struck the previous day.

In the Australasian session, it traded at 79.80 =NZD .

The kiwi had rallied when the Reserve Bank of New Zealand on Thursday raised its official interest rate by 25 basis points to 2.75 percent, but it trimmed gains when rising tension in Ukraine and concerns about the Chinese economy had prompted selling in riskier assets.

The RBNZ became the first central bank among developed economies to raise interest rates in the current monetary cycle. The kiwi climbed on the back of the central bank's upward revisions to its outlook for rates and growth as it prompted investors to price in a faster pace of tightening.

While the central bank said that strength in the kiwi was unsustainable over the longer term, a stronger outlook for the currency in the coming years would keep the kiwi robust, analysts said.

"They lifted their FX forecast, which implies that a strong New Zealand dollar won't stand in the way of further tightening,' said Chris Tennent-Brown, economist at ASB in Auckland.

"If global sentiment improves a lot, we could see $0.8600 again."

Still, he added that with the start to the RBNZ's tightening cycle out of the way, a further, significant rise in the kiwi was unlikely, picking the currency to trade in a $0.8400-$0.8600 range over the near- to mid-term.

Many analysts believe that a deepening in the conflict in Ukraine or a significant economic deterioration in China, New Zealand's biggest trading partner, could push the kiwi down towards $0.8400.

New Zealand government bonds 0#NZTSY= rose broadly, pushing yields 5 basis points lower at the long end of the curve.

Australian government bond futures bounced off multi-month lows with the three-year bond contract YTTc1 up 8 ticks at 97.035. The 10-year contract added 6.5 tick to 95.940.

(Editing by Shri Navaratnam)

((Cecile.Lefort@thomsonreuters.com)(+61 2 9373-1234)(Reuters Messaging: cecile.lefort.thomsonreuters@reuters.net))

Keywords: MARKETS AUSTRALIA/FOREX

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Topics: 
REP DBT LEN RTRS NZ AU MMT MKTREP FRX ASIA

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