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Highlight: Geopolitics took centre stage. After the Trump–Xi summit, the US and China agreed to extend their trade truce by two months, to January 10. However, the US–Iran stalemate continued, keeping energy prices high and inflation worries alive. The economic data was mixed: business activity picked up in the US, Eurozone and India but cooled in Japan and the UK, while the US jobs market stayed strong.
Gold update: Gold had a tougher week. The LBMA PM price fell 2% to US$4,261/oz, pushing the year-to-date loss to 2.4%. The cause was strong US data and hawkish Fed comments, which raised expectations of more rate hikes and lifted both Treasury yields and the dollar.
Who’s buying: Sentiment turned. Global gold ETFs posted their first weekly outflow since mid-July, futures investors trimmed net long positions, and options markets turned somewhat bearish in the near term.
Key levels: Gold is testing support at its 55-day average of about US$4,290/oz, but is holding the US$4,231/oz Fibonacci level just below. A sustained break under US$4,231/oz would signal more downside, with the year-to-date lows of US$4,000–3,943/oz as the major floor. On the upside, a move above last week’s high of US$4,400/oz is needed to turn the short-term trend positive.
Key point: Golden Week (1–7 October) traditionally starts China’s peak gold-buying season, usually bringing stronger jewellery sales, trade restocking and higher local premiums. High prices and weak consumer confidence have hurt Chinese jewellery demand in 2026, but recent price stability plus holiday spending could release some delayed demand and support gold into year end.
Weekly radar: The RBA was expected to hike by 25bp, potentially taking the cash rate to 4.6%, its highest since November 2011. In the US, investors were watching August PCE inflation and September payrolls for clues on the Fed’s next move.
Takeout: Last week gold shrugged off rising rates; this week it couldn’t, as ETF investors pulled back. Chinese seasonal demand is the main bright spot to watch.