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Highlight: Geopolitics and inflation were back in the headlines. Attacks and ongoing disruption in the Strait of Hormuz pushed oil prices higher, and President Trump waived extra tariffs of up to 100% on major buyers of Russian energy. US inflation surprised on the upside: headline CPI rose to 3.7% y/y, and producer prices jumped 1.3% in the month, the largest rise in four years, reviving talk of more Fed hikes. Inflation also firmed in the euro area, India and China, while strong exports widened China's trade surplus.
Gold update: Gold held steady. The LBMA PM price closed at US$4,189/oz, up 0.1% for the week, leaving the year-to-date loss at 4.1%. The hot inflation data and higher oil weighed on gold, but stock-market volatility and a dovish reading of Fed Chair Warsh's comments at the IMF–World Bank meetings pushed yields lower and gave gold support.
Who's buying (and who's selling): Gold ETF inflows picked up, with North America switching from outflows to inflows, while options traders added short-term bearish bets. The futures split continued: US traders cut bullish positions while Chinese investors added to theirs for a third straight week.
The bonds angle: During the current Nasdaq sell-off, 10-year Treasury yields have fallen even though inflation has surprised higher, which suggests investors may be turning back to bonds for safety. WGC says this cuts both ways for gold: bonds could compete for safe-haven money, but lower yields reduce the cost of holding gold and could help if the equity sell-off deepens.
Weekly radar: Two US policy stories to watch. With midterm early voting underway, a split Congress could ease fiscal worries but weaken the growth outlook and raise the risk of shutdowns, a mixed outcome for gold. And Judy Shelton, who supports giving gold a role in the monetary system again, has joined the US Treasury as a counsellor. Her ideas include bonds redeemable in either dollars or gold, and revisiting how US gold reserves are valued.
Takeout: Gold is stuck around US$4,190 as inflation pressure and safe-haven demand pull in opposite directions. ETF buying is picking up again, and a gold-friendly voice inside the US Treasury is worth keeping an eye on.