Direct line: +61 479 069 333
Highlight: Geopolitics, energy and the Fed were the focus again. A weaker-than-expected US jobs report and steady PCE inflation reduced expectations of near-term rate hikes. September payrolls rose by only 29,000 against forecasts of 90,000, and unemployment ticked up to 4.2%. Elsewhere, inflation picked up in the Eurozone and Tokyo, and China announced new growth-support measures. Closer to home, the RBA lifted its cash rate by 25bp to 4.6%, a 15-year high and its fourth hike of 2026, citing rising energy costs and strong domestic demand.
Gold update: The losing streak continued. Gold fell for a sixth straight week, its longest run since August 2018, with the LBMA PM price down 1.7% to US$4,190/oz and the year-to-date loss widening to 4.1%. US–Iran tensions pushed yields and the dollar higher early in the week, but the softer PCE and payroll data later helped gold claw back some ground.
Who’s buying: This is the key story of the report. Gold fell more than 8% in September even though global gold ETFs took in over 70 tonnes, a combination WGC says it has never seen at this scale. The explanation is that different investors moved in opposite directions: while ETF buyers added gold, COMEX Managed Money positions dropped by about 84 tonnes and Spreading positions by about 156 tonnes, which helps explain how prices fell despite strong ETF demand. Last week followed the same pattern, with ETF flows turning positive (led by the US) while futures investors cut net longs and options traders stayed bearish short term.
Quarter in review: Despite the recent slide, gold finished Q3 up 3.7%, ahead of US equities (+2.0%), while US Treasuries returned -3.5%, their worst quarter since late 2022.
Weekly radar: The US–Iran standoff remains unresolved, and swings in geopolitical tension have become a key driver of inflation expectations and Fed pricing, one of the main forces behind gold in 2026. The FOMC minutes were expected to show broad support for further hikes given sticky inflation.
Takeout: Gold’s price is falling, but long-term ETF buyers are still accumulating. The selling is coming from futures traders, not from investors abandoning gold.